OCR A-Level Geography Geographical debates (03), June 2025: Question 12

33 marks · Hard difficulty · Extended Response

To what extent do different agendas shape the debates of climate change over time?

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Question

Question 12 from an OCR A-Level Geography paper, marked with an asterisk: 'To what extent do different agendas shape the debates of climate change over time? [33]'
Question text

To what extent do different agendas shape the debates of climate change over time? [33]

Mark scheme

Show the mark scheme Mark scheme for Question 12 showing level descriptors for AO1 (9 marks) across 4 levels and AO2 (24 marks) across 4 levels. Indicative content includes historical background of the global warming debate, role and bias of governments, international organisations, media, interest groups, scientists, and activist groups campaigning to reduce global warming or opposing climate action.

Question Answer Mark Guidance

To what extent do different agendas shape the debates of 33 Indicative content AO1 – 9

climate change over time? AO1 x9 marks

AO2 x24 Demonstrating knowledge and understanding of the debates of

AO1 climate change over time could potentially include:

Level 4 (7–9 marks) • Historic background of the global warming debate and how

Demonstrates comprehensive knowledge and understanding it has evolved over time.

of the debates of climate change over time. • Role and possible bias of governments and international

organisations, such as the EU, UN, World Bank.

Level 3 (5–6 marks) • Role and possible bias of the media and different interest

Demonstrates thorough knowledge and understanding of the groups.

debates of climate change over time.

• Current focus on policies to achieve Net Zero/Carbon

Neutral both for and against.

Level 2 (3–4 marks)

Demonstrates reasonable knowledge and understanding of the

AO2 – 24 marks

debates of climate change over time.

Application of knowledge and understanding to analyse and

Level 1 (1–2 marks) evaluate to what extent different agendas shape the debates of

Demonstrates basic knowledge and understanding of the climate change over time could potentially include:

debates of climate change over time. • Expect wide range of evaluation of ‘shape’, measured

temporally, spatially, by results or actions.

0 marks • Scientists

No response or no response worthy of credit. o Discussion over global warming altered since

1950s with increasing knowledge and concerns

AO2 over the operation of the carbon cycle.

Level 4 (19–24 marks) o Role of scientists in discovery and developing

Demonstrates comprehensive application of knowledge and understanding of climate change, some scientists

understanding to provide a clear, developed and convincing challenge widely accepted view of anthropogenic

analysis that is fully accurate of how different agendas shape global warming but vast majority (c. 97%) accept

the debates of climate change over time. warming is occurring and that humans are

responsible

Demonstrates comprehensive application of knowledge and o Developments in measuring change e.g. GHGs

understanding to provide a detailed and substantiated levels, extent + thickness of sea ice, use of

evaluation that offers secure judgements leading to rational satellites, computer modelling offer increasingly

conclusions that are evidence based as to what extent different secure data to shape debate. With improved

agendas shape the debates of climate change over time. techniques of data collection, understandable and

quite appropriate for previous figures to be

Relevant concepts are authoritatively discussed. adjusted to take account of improved techniques.

o International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) –

Level 3 (13–18 marks) the key group for establishing the science of

climate change.

Mark Scheme June 2025

Demonstrates thorough application of knowledge and • Political organisations

understanding to provide a clear and developed analysis that o The UN - actions against global warming from 1997

shows accuracy of how different agendas shape the debates of (Kyoto Protocol); some international impact, but

climate change over time. some key political powers failed to engage with the

binding targets e.g. USA and China.

Demonstrates thorough application of knowledge and o EU initiatives

understanding to provide a detailed evaluation that offers o National + regional governmental policies

generally secure judgements, with some link between rational • Popular media

conclusions as to what extent different agendas shape the o Newspapers, social media (blogs), TV. Bias occurs

debates of climate change over time. depending on political leanings.

o Some films have influenced the debate, but this

Relevant concepts are discussed but this may lack some rarely lasts longer than a news cycle e.g.

authority. Inconvenient Truth, Before the Flood, Day after

Tomorrow

Level 2 (7–12 marks) • Activist groups + individuals – those campaigning to

Demonstrates reasonable application of knowledge and reduce global warming as well as those not accepting

understanding to provide a sound analysis that shows some science.

accuracy of how different agendas shape the debates of climate o Just Stop Oil; Extinction Rebellion; WWF;

change over time. National Trust; Christian Aid + Cafod; David

Attenborough, Greta Thunberg, John Kerry.

Demonstrates reasonable application of knowledge and

understanding to provide a sound evaluation that offers

generalised judgements and conclusions, with limited use of

evidence as to what extent different agendas shape the debates

of climate change over time.

Concepts are discussed but their use lacks precision.

Level 1 (1–6 marks)

Demonstrates basic application of knowledge and

understanding to provide a simple analysis that shows limited

accuracy of how different agendas shape the debates of climate

change over time

Demonstrates basic application of knowledge and

understanding to provide an un-supported evaluation that offers

simple conclusions as to what extent different agendas shape

the debates of climate change over time.

Concepts are not discussed or are so inaccurately.

Mark Scheme June 2025

0 marks

No response or no response worthy of credit.

Quality of extended response Level 4

There is a well-developed line of reasoning which is clear and

logically structured. The information presented is relevant and

substantiated.

Level 3

There is a line of reasoning presented with some structure. The

information presented is in the most-part relevant and supported

by some evidence.

Level 2

The information has some relevance and is presented with

limited structure. The information is supported by limited

evidence.

Level 1

The information is basic and communicated in an unstructured

way. The information is supported by limited evidence and the

relationship to the evidence may not be clear.

How to answer it

OCR A-Level Geography • Paper 3: Geographical Debates

Question 12*: Agendas Shaping Climate Change Debates [33 Marks]

What this question tests

This is a synoptic 33-mark extended essay exploring how varied ideological, economic, scientific, and political motivations drive the public and policy discourse on climate change, and how these influences have shifted over time.

Key Knowledge Tested (AO1 – 9 marks):
  • Evolution of climate science from early fringe debate (1950s) to 97%+ scientific consensus.
  • Role and systemic biases of IGOs (UN, EU, World Bank) and national governments.
  • Role of commercial media, social networks, and corporate lobby groups.
  • Contemporary policy debates: Net Zero targets vs economic growth priorities.
Key Skills Tested (AO2 – 24 marks):
  • Critical evaluation of "to what extent" agendas alter policy outcomes and public perception.
  • Temporal analysis: tracking debates from early sceptics → Kyoto Protocol (1997) → Paris Agreement (2015) → current Net Zero disputes.
  • Evaluating geographical scale (global agreements vs national implementation).
  • Developing a substantiated, authoritative, and balanced conclusion.

1. Assessment Objectives & Mark Breakdown

Understanding where the marks are awarded

Objective Marks Level 4 Descriptor (Top Band)
AO1 Knowledge & Understanding 9 marks Comprehensive (7–9 marks): In-depth, accurate knowledge of historical debates, institutions (UN, IPCC), media roles, and current Net Zero policies. Precise geographical terminology.
AO2 Application, Analysis & Evaluation 24 marks Comprehensive (19–24 marks): Clear, convincing analysis. Detailed and substantiated evaluation assessing "to what extent" across time and space. Authoritative, rational judgements.
Quality of Extended Response Integrated Well-developed, logical line of reasoning with clear structure and substantiated arguments.
Examiner Insight: AO2 carries almost three times as many marks as AO1 (24 vs 9). Candidates who merely describe the history of climate change or list environmental disasters will fail to reach Level 3. You must actively critique why an agenda exists (e.g. fossil fuel protection vs ecological survival) and how much it swayed public debate or political action.

2. Key Agendas to Deconstruct

Four distinct stakeholder perspectives required for high-scoring responses

💡 1. Scientific Agendas & Technological Advancements

Evolution: Shifted from early atmospheric physics (Keeling Curve, 1958) to overwhelming consensus today (~97% of publishing climate scientists agree warming is anthropogenic).

  • Data improvements: Satellite telemetry, ice-core extraction (EPICA), ocean buoys (Argo floats), and complex GCMs (General Circulation Models).
  • IPCC: Publishes periodic Assessment Reports synthesising peer-reviewed evidence to set global baselines, purposefully minimising political bias.
  • Contrarians: A declining minority funded historically by carbon-intensive industries contesting climate sensitivity or feedback loops.

💡 2. Political & Geopolitical Agendas

National Interests vs Global Common Goods: Economic self-interest often trumps ecological necessity.

  • UN Treaties: Kyoto (1997) suffered because the USA refused ratification and developing nations (e.g. China, India) had no legally binding reduction targets.
  • Paris (2015): Adopted voluntary Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to secure unanimous engagement, sacrificing binding enforcement for consensus.
  • Political Flip-Flops: US withdrawal from Paris under Trump and re-entry under Biden illustrates how partisan agendas disrupt international commitments.

💡 3. Media & Public Communication

Commercial Drivers & Polarisation: Media prioritises controversy, sensationalism, and advertising revenue.

  • False Balance: Traditional broadcast media historically pitched one scientist against one sceptic to appear "impartial", exaggerating dissent.
  • Cultural Films: Popular documentaries (An Inconvenient Truth, Before the Flood) create intense, transient spikes in awareness that rarely sustain long-term legislative momentum.
  • Algorithmic Echo Chambers: Modern social media amplifies polarised climate denial or eco-anxiety depending on user segmentation.

💡 4. Activism & Civil Society

Disruption vs Institutional Pressure: Influencing moral urgency and legislative agendas.

  • Direct Action: Extinction Rebellion (XR) and Just Stop Oil employ civil disobedience to force Net Zero into the headlines, though this occasionally causes public backlash.
  • Youth & Cultural Figures: Greta Thunberg (Fridays for Future) and David Attenborough appeal directly to ethics, shifting climate change from a technical topic to a generational moral crisis.
  • NGOs & Faith Groups: CAFOD, Christian Aid, and WWF highlight climate justice and loss-and-damage in the Global South.

3. Structuring a Level 4 (28–33 Mark) Essay

Recommended paragraph architecture with temporal progression

🧠 The "PEEL + Temporal Dimension" Blueprint

  1. Introduction: Define "agendas" (scientific integrity, national economic growth, corporate profit, public health, moral obligation). Define "debates over time" (1950s discovery → 1990s politicisation → 2015 Paris consensus → current Net Zero cost-of-living disputes). State your overarching thesis clearly.
  2. Theme 1 – The Shift in Scientific Agendas: How scientific agendas transitioned from fringe atmospheric science to an indisputable consensus (IPCC), reducing debate over whether warming occurs to how rapidly mitigation must happen.
  3. Theme 2 – Political Agendas & Economic Sovereignty: Evaluate how governments shape debates to protect short-term GDP. Contrast developed nations (historical emitters) with emerging economies needing fossil fuels for poverty alleviation (e.g. COP negotiations on fossil fuel phase-out vs phase-down).
  4. Theme 3 – Corporate & Media Framing: Contrast the historical agenda of the fossil fuel lobby (e.g. promoting doubt, carbon footprint framing) with modern media echo chambers and transient pop-culture impacts.
  5. Theme 4 – Grassroots Agendas & Climate Justice: How activists (Greta Thunberg, XR, Small Island Developing States) re-framed the debate from pure economics to human rights and intergenerational justice.
  6. Conclusion & Synthesis: Formulate an explicit, balanced final verdict. Have agendas shaped the debate entirely, or has accelerating physical reality (extreme weather events) forced agendas to adapt?

📐 Analytical Framework: Measuring the "Extent" of Agendas

To score high in AO2, judge the influence of agendas across three specific criteria:

1. Temporal Influence:

Corporate/sceptic agendas delayed policy during the 1990s–2000s; scientific and activist agendas dominate contemporary public discourse.

2. Spatial Variation:

Western European agendas focus heavily on Net Zero/renewables; energy-insecure developing nations prioritise industrialisation and grid reliability.

3. Debate vs Action:

Agendas heavily dictate public debate and rhetoric, but tangible legislative action frequently lags due to economic constraints.

4. Examiner Guidance: Mistakes to Avoid vs How to Excel

Critical insights from OCR Principal Examiners

❌ Common Errors That Cap Marks in Level 1 & 2

  • Describing physical processes: Writing several pages explaining the greenhouse effect, Milankovitch cycles, or volcanic cooling rather than addressing the debate.
  • Ignoring the temporal element: Discussing only contemporary issues (e.g. Just Stop Oil) without examining how the debate has changed over decades.
  • Treating the media as uniform: Assuming all media denies or sensationalises climate change, rather than acknowledging ideological divides across outlets.
  • Unsubstantiated conclusions: Ending with a generic "In conclusion, everyone has an agenda and climate change is very important" without answering the specific prompt.

✅ What Distinguishes Top-Level (Level 4) Responses

  • Nuanced definition of "agenda": Distinguishing between profit-driven agendas, geopolitical power agendas, and evidence-driven scientific missions.
  • Use of specific dates & bodies: Accurately referencing the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the 2015 Paris Agreement, IPCC Assessment Reports (AR5/AR6), and COP summits.
  • Evaluation of empirical feedback: Arguing that real-world physical changes (extreme heat waves, retreat of Arctic sea ice) are increasingly constraining the ability of sceptical agendas to sway public opinion.
  • Continuous evaluative phrasing: Regularly using terms such as "to a significant degree", "primarily driven by", "in the short term", and "spatially divergent".

5. Model Paragraph Analysis (AO1 + AO2 Integration)

Exemplar section targeting the 19–24 AO2 band

"The extent to which political agendas shape the climate debate is particularly evident in the historical shift from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the 2015 Paris Agreement. In 1997, international policy was hamstrung by national economic agendas: the US Senate refused to ratify Kyoto because it excluded major emerging economies like China and India from binding emissions reductions, which US politicians argued would disadvantage domestic manufacturing. Over time, however, the rising frequency of anomalous weather events and refined IPCC modelling exposed the limitations of rigid top-down mandates. By 2015, the geopolitical agenda adapted: the Paris Agreement exchanged legally binding targets for voluntary Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). While this political compromise secured near-universal participation, it reflects an agenda fundamentally shaped by national sovereignty rather than ecological thresholds, as current pledges remain insufficient to restrict global mean warming to 1.5°C. Thus, political self-interest continues to exercise a dominant shaping influence over the practical outcome of the debate."

Why this scores top marks:
  • AO1 Accurate factual references: Kyoto (1997), Paris (2015), NDCs, 1.5°C threshold.
  • AO2 Directly evaluates how agendas alter debate formats (from binding mandates to voluntary pledges) and evaluates the overall extent of their impact on tangible outcomes.

Topics

Topic 3.1 Climate Change · 3.a. Debates of climate change are shaped by a variety of agendas.

Question and mark scheme from the OCR A-Level Geography examination, Geographical debates (03), June 2025. QuestionVault is an independent revision resource; questions remain the copyright of the awarding body.